[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 January 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JANUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JANUARY - 12 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jan:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jan             11 Jan             12 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              78/17


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 09 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21111000
      Darwin               2   21111001
      Learmonth            0   10010000
      Culgoora             1   -2000000
      Camden               4   21212111
      Canberra             1   11100000
      Hobart               1   11100000
      Casey(Ant)           6   3-321011
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jan : 
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   0122 2001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jan     7    Quiet 
11 Jan     6    Quiet 
12 Jan     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Jan     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  18

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jan    15    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Jan    15    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Jan    15    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Depressions observed equatorial region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jan
Speed: 378 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    51000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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