[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 December 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 17 10:12:11 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 DECEMBER - 19 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Dec: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Dec 18 Dec 19 Dec
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Low
Fadeouts Probable Probable None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low throughout the UT day
of 16 December. A weak shock in the solar wind was observed
at 1722 UT signalling the impact with the earth of the CME associated
with the 14 December X class flare. The solar wind showed a steady
decline throughout the UT day from 650 km/s to 550 km/s until
the shock at 1722 UT when it increased to 650 km/s again. Solar
wind speed is expected to remain elevated over the next few days.
Bz, the z component of the IMF, remained very close to zero throughout
the UT day until 1722 UT. Since the shock, Bz has fluctuated
between +/- 5 nT. With the arrival of the CME, geomagnetic activity
increased from Unsettled to Active levels. There is a chance
of Minor storm levels over the next 36 hours if a sustained
period of southward Bz occurs. A recurring coronal hole region
is expected to move into a geoeffective position in 2 to 3 days.
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high over the next
2 days with Region 930 still having a good chance of producing
further M and X class flares.
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1721UT
on 16 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Dec: Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Dec : A K
Australian Region 12 23322333
Darwin 10 22222333
Townsville 13 33322333
Learmonth 15 32322443
Camden 10 23321233
Canberra 10 23321233
Hobart 9 23221233
Casey(Ant) 19 3-432344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 48
Planetary 104 8876 7443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Dec 30 Active to Minor storm
18 Dec 30 Active to Minor storm
19 Dec 20 active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been Unsettled to Active over
the last 24 hours. The effects of the CME associated with the
13 December X flare have dissipated. However, with the glancing
blow to the earth of the CME associated with the 14 December
X flare occurring at 1722 UT, geomagnetic activity increased
again from Unsettled to Active levels. There is the chance of
Minor geomagnetic storm levels over the next 36 hours while the
effects of the latest CME on the solar wind persist. A reccurring
coronal hole region is expected to move into a geoeffective position
over the next 2 to 3 days resulting in further geomagnetic activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Fair Fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : Began at 0305UT 13/12, Ended at 1645UT 15/12
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Fair Fair Fair-Poor
18 Dec Fair Fair Fair-Poor
19 Dec Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Propogation conditions throughout the UT day were highly
variable with generally weak ionospheric support at all latitudes.
Persistent and strong sporadic E was observed in ionograms at
low and mid latitudes through the UT day. Expect slowly improving
propagation conditions at all latitudes over the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Dec -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
about 20% below predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Dec -10 5 to 30% below predicted monthly values
18 Dec -5 5 to 20% below predicted monthly values
19 Dec -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 40 was issued on 15 December
and is current for interval 16-18 December (SWFs) . HF conditions
throughout the UT day were highly variable with generally weak
ionospheric support in all Australasian regions. Ionospheric
support recovered to near normal levels around local dawn. Persistent
and strong sporadic E was observed in ionograms across all
Australasian regions throughout the day. Expect current disturbed
HF conditions to continue over the next few days but to slowly recover.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Dec
Speed: 663 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 82100 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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