[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 December 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 16 10:53:18 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 14/2300UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Dec: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec
Activity High High Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Possible
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low throughout the UT day
of 15 December since the X class flare late in the UT day of
14 December (2215 UT). The type II radio sweep observed with
this event and reported yesterday has been confirmed from LASCO
images from 14 December 2230 UT as resulting from a CME emitted
with the flare. This CME while not as earth-ward directed as
the CME associated with the 13 December X flare, is still expected
to partially impact the earth on 16 December, early in the UT
day. A shock speed of 1500 +/- 200 km/s was estimated from the
type II sweep. Solar winds associated with the CME impact of
14 December have declined in speed over the last 24 hours from
850 km/s to 650 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF has become
steadily more neutral throughout the UT day, from -15 nT at 00
UT to -2 nT at 23 UT. This has caused a steady decline in geomagnetic
activity throughout the UT day. The proton event and PCA associated
with the X flares of 13 and 14 December ended at 1645 UT. A recurring
coronal hole region is expected to move into a geoeffective position
in 3 to 4 days.Solar activity is expected to be high over the
next few days with Region 930 having a good chance of producing
further M and X class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Dec: Severe Storm to Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Dec : A K
Australian Region 41 65556322
Darwin 38 65555323
Townsville 34 55555332
Learmonth 51 65666333
Camden 39 55646322
Canberra 39 55646322
Hobart 47 65656422
Casey(Ant) 42 66455433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Dec :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 7 (Quiet)
Learmonth 44 (Unsettled)
Camden 84 (Minor storm)
Canberra 92 (Minor storm)
Hobart 126 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 60
Planetary 100
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 30
Planetary 63 2122 6768
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Dec 50 Storm levels
17 Dec 40 Minor storm
18 Dec 30 Active to Minor storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 15 December
and is current for interval 15-16 December. Major to Severe storm
level geomagnetic activity has been observed over the last 24
hours. Geomagnetic storm levels associated with the CME impacting
the earth late on 14 December (14 UT) intensified to Severe storm
levels with a sustained period of southward Bz, the z component
of the IMF, of around - 15 nT. Bz became gradually more neutral
throughout the UT day, from -15 nT at 00 UT to -2 nT at 23 UT.
This caused a steady decline in geomagnetic activity observed
with ground based magnetometers to minor storm levels by 14 UT
and Quiet to Unsettled conditions by 23 UT. A CME associated
with the X flare of 14 December (2215 UT) is expected to impact
the earth with a glancing blow towards the middle of the UT day
on 16 December. This is expected to lead to further Minor to
Major storm conditions for 24 - 36 hours. In addition, a recurring
coronal hole region is expected to move into a geoeffective position
around 18/19 December which is likely to cause Active to Minor
storm conditions for 2 to 3 days. The possibility of further
CMEs associated with the currently active solar region effecting
the earth has decreased and will continue to decrease as the
region moves beyond the western solar limb over the next few
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Fair Fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : Began at 0305UT 13/12, Ended at 1645UT 15/12
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Fair Fair-poor Poor
17 Dec Fair Fair Poor
18 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Propogation conditions throughout the UT day were highly
variable with enhancements from solar flare activity compounding
with depressions due to geomagnetic activity. Ionospheric support
was generally weak at all frequencies. Conditions at low and
mid latitudes were fair to poor early in the UT day, recovering
late in the UT day with a decline in geomagnetic activity. Conditions
at high latitudes were poor throughout the UT day with signs
of recovering slightly with an end to the recent proton/PCA event.
Expect generally fair propagation conditions at low and mid latitudes
and poor conditions at high latitudes over the next 48 hours
with continued high levels of geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Dec -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
5 to 40% below predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Dec -20 5 to 30% below predicted monthly values
17 Dec -10 5 to 30% below predicted monthly values
18 Dec -10 5 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 15 December
and is current for interval 15-16 December. HF conditions and
MUFS throughout the UT day were highly variable with enhancements
from solar flare activity compounding with depressions due to
geomagnetic activity. Ionospheric support was generally weak
at all frequencies. HF conditions were fair to normal in Northern
Australian/Pacific regions and fair to poor in Southern Australian/New
Zealand regions throughout the UT day, recovering late in the
UT day with a decline in geomagnetic activity. Expect generally
fair conditions over Middle and Northern Australia and poor conditions
over Southern Australian regions over the next 48 hours with
continued high levels of geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Dec
Speed: 633 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 176000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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