[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 December 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 14 10:57:19 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 DECEMBER - 16 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Dec: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X3.4 0241UT probable all E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Dec: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec
Activity High High High
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was high over the last 24 hours with
Region 930 producing an X class flare (X3.4) at 0214 UT and C
class flares at 1414 UT and 1818 UT (C2.2 and C1.7 respectively).
A full halo frontside CME was associated with the X3.4 flare.
This was observed as a type II radio sweep with an estimated
shock speed of 1600 +/- 200 km/s. The CME was observed in LASCO
C2 satellite imagery at 0254 UT confirmng the occurrence of the
CME and that it is earthward bound. The CME is expected to arrive
at the earth on 14 December, late in the UT day. Solar wind speed
has remained at an elevated level over the last 24 hours and
is currently ~640km/s. A proton event is currently in progress
associated with the X3.4 flare. Greater than 10MeV proton levels
are currently at 169 pfu after a high of 698 pfu at 925 UT. Greater
than 100 MeV proton levels are currently at 2 pfu after reaching
a high of 89 pfu at 525 UT. Solar activity is expected to be
high over the next few days with Region 930 having a good chance
of producing further M and X class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 13 Dec : A K
Australian Region 8 42211122
Darwin 11 53111122
Townsville 10 43222222
Learmonth 12 52221223
Camden 7 42111122
Canberra 7 42111122
Hobart 7 42211112
Casey(Ant) 20 5---3233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 26 3533 4354
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Dec 130 Major to Severe storm levels
15 Dec 100 Major to minor storm levels
16 Dec 20 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 13 December
and is current for interval 14-16 December. Unsettled geomagnetic
conditions were observed over the last 24 hours. A full halo
frontside CME associated with an X3.4 flare emitted close to
the central solar meridian is expected to impact the earth late
in the UT day of 14 December. Major to Severe geomagnetic storm
conditions are expected at this time. Major to Severe storm conditions
are expected to last into the early UT day of 15 December.
A weak (15nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 0222UT on 13 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Poor-fair Poor-fair Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 13 12 2006 0305UT and is in
progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Poor Poor Poor(PCA)
15 Dec Poor Poor Poor
16 Dec Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: A short wave fadeout occurred between 0230 UT and 0530
UT in all Australasian regions due to a X3.4 flare which occurred
at 0214 UT. A complete HF fadeout was observed in ionograms over
all Australasian regions betwen 0230UT and 0330UT. Conditions
returned to normal over low and mid latitudes by around 6 UT.
Significant sporadic E was observed at all latitudes further
seriously degrading HF communications between 4 UT and 20 UT.
With the expected arrival of a CME late in the UT day of 14 December,
severe geomagnetic storm activity is expected to degrade
communications
for 24 - 48 hours from that time. High latitudes experienced
poor HF conditions due to PCA effects which are still in progress
at the time of this report.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Dec -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly above predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Dec -40 about 50% below predicted monthly values
15 Dec -20 about 30% above predicted monthly values
16 Dec 2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: A complete HF fadeout was observed in all Australasian
regions between 0230 UT and 0330 UT. HF conditions are expected
to be very poor 14 and 15 December due to arrival of a CME.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.9E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Dec
Speed: 675 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 295000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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