[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 December 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 14 10:54:33 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Dec: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours with
Region 930 producing only B class flares. Solar wind speed remains
elevated and is currently ~650km/s, having peaked at just over
750km/s during the UT day. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between +/-5nT over
the UT day, with a sustained southward period between 0200UT and
0600UT of -6nT. The >10MeV proton event finished at 0900UT. Solar
activity is expected to be low over the next few days. Region 930
has increased slightly in size over the last 2 days and still has
the chance of producing an isolated M-class flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Dec: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 12 Dec : A K
Australian Region 19 33434433
Darwin 15 33334323
Townsville 17 23334433
Learmonth 25 44345433
Camden 18 33434432
Canberra 19 33434433
Hobart 20 34434432
Casey(Ant) 28 -4-54443
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 7 (Quiet)
Camden 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15 3431 1125
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
14 Dec 12 Unsettled
15 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Unsettled to Active geomagnetic activity levels observed
over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed remains elevated with
a notable southward period for Bz between 0200UT and 0600UT.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Unsettled for the
next 24 hours with possible Active periods. Quiet to Unsettled
conditions for 14Dec and 15Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal Normal Poor
PCA Event : Began at 1625UT 06/12, Ended at 1135UT 12/12
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Enhancements and otherwise normal HF conditions observed
for low to mid latitudes over the last 24 hours. High latitudes
experienced poor HF conditions due to PCA effects as the >10MeV
proton event that finished at 0900UT/12. Improving conditions
expected for high latitudes over the next 24 hours. Normal HF
conditions expected for low to mid latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Dec 23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhancements during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Dec 20 near predicted monthly values
14 Dec 20 near predicted monthly values
15 Dec 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced conditions observed for local evenings over
both Northern Aus/Equatorial and Southern Aus/NZ regions, with
otherwise normal HF conditions. Poor ionospheric support for
Antarctic regions due to PCA effects. Improving conditions are
expected over the next 24 hours for Antarctic regions with mostly
normal conditions for all other regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.5E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Dec
Speed: 642 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 329000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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