[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 December 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 5 10:32:53 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 DECEMBER - 07 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Dec: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity remained low during the last 24
hours. Region 930(S07E78) produced several C-class flares,
the largest of these flares being a C4.9 flare at 1486UT.
The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 380 to 300
km/s during this period. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained close to the
normal value almost the whole UT day today. Solar activity
is expected to remain at low levels for the next three days.
A coronal hole effect may strengthen the solar wind stream
for a few days, starting on 06 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11110111
Darwin 3 11110112
Townsville 5 22211212
Learmonth 2 11100012
Culgoora 3 1-------
Camden 0 00100000
Canberra 0 00100000
Hobart 0 00100000
Casey(Ant) 5 2-321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1100 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Dec 4 Quiet
06 Dec 10 Quiet to active.
07 Dec 25 Mostly active, minor storm periods possible.
COMMENT: The effect of a coronal hole may raise the
geomagentic activity to active levels on 06 and 07
December with some possibility of minor storm periods
on 07 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions may show minor to moderate degradations
at high latitudes on 06 and 07 December. Minor degradations
are also possible at mid latitudes on 07 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Dec 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Dec 7 Near predicted monthly values
06 Dec 5 near predicted monthly values
07 Dec 0 Near monthly predicted values/depressed 5%.
COMMENT: HF conditions may show minor degradations on 06 and
07 December, especially in the Southern Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Dec
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 26400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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