[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 December 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 4 10:26:48 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 DECEMBER - 06 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Dec: Low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Dec: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar wind speed is currently about 370 km/s. Region
926 produced a C1 flare at 0325 UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 22211221
Darwin 3 21110112
Townsville 6 22222221
Learmonth 5 22210222
Culgoora 5 12211222
Camden 3 12110111
Canberra 4 12210211
Hobart - --------
Casey(Ant) 5 ---21221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Dec :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0010 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Dec 4 Quiet
05 Dec 4 Quiet
06 Dec 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods.
COMMENT: A coronal hole is expected to become geo-effective on
the 6 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Dec 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Mostly near predicted monthly values at all latitudes.
Depressions to 30% observed at Vanimo and Port Moresby
around 10 to 13 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values
05 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values
06 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Dec
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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