[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 December 06

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Dec:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Dec             03 Dec             04 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 01 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22122222
      Darwin               4   11121112
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            8   22232222
      Culgoora             6   11222222
      Camden               3   11121111
      Canberra             5   11122122
      Hobart               3   11121111
      Casey(Ant)          15   33-43233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             28   2455 5521     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Dec     7    Quiet 
03 Dec     6    Quiet 
04 Dec     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Dec   -27

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Depressed by 20% during local day,
     Depressed by 20% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Depressed by 30% during local day,
     Depressed by 20% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Depressed by 30% during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Dec   -10    Mildly depressed (<15%) to near predicted monthly 
                values 
03 Dec     5    Near predicted monthly values 
04 Dec     5    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Nov
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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