[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 November 06

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z NOVEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Dec             02 Dec             03 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 30 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      21   23455322
      Darwin              14   23344312
      Townsville          17   23345322
      Learmonth           23   23455422
      Culgoora            21   23455321
      Camden              20   13455321
      Canberra            23   13555321
      Hobart              23   13555321
      Casey(Ant)          16   33344322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               3   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   2321 0122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Dec    13    Unsettled to Active 
02 Dec     4    Quiet 
03 Dec     3    Quiet 
COMMENT: Generally quiet to unsettled conditions expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Nov      Normal-Fair    Fair           Fair-Poor
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Depressed conditions expected on day 1 of forecast period 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Nov     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Depressed by 50% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
     Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Dec   -20    Mildly depressed (<15%) to near predicted monthly 
                values 
02 Dec     5    Near predicted monthly values 
03 Dec     5    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Nov
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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