[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 August 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 31 AUGUST - 02 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Aug:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Aug             01 Sep             02 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind velocty continued to decline, from 550km/s at
0000UT to be 450km/s at the time of this report. Solar
activity is expected to be low over the next few days. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 30 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22221212
      Darwin               6   22221212
      Learmonth            5   21222211
      Culgoora             5   21221212
      Camden               7   11222232
      Canberra             6   21231211
      Hobart               5   22220211
      Casey(Ant)          12   33332322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Aug : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           11   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              34   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9   2234 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
01 Sep     7    Quiet 
02 Sep     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters declined over the last 24 hours 
to normal levels. Bz, the north-south component of the IMF remained 
mostly northward over the UT day, with brief southward excursions 
no greater than 5nT in magnitude. Quiet conditions are expected 
for the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Some disturbed periods observed for mid to high latitudes, 
while overall mostly normal HF conditions observed for all regions 
over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for the 
next 2 days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Aug    17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      No data available during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Aug    15    near predicted monthly values 
01 Sep    15    near predicted monthly values 
02 Sep    15    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Some Sporadic-E and Spread-F conditions observed for 
Southern Aus/NZ regions. Mostly normal ionospheric conditions 
observed over all regions during the last 24 hours, with some 
periods of disturbance for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions 
are expected for the next 2 days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Aug
Speed: 541 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:   136000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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