[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 August 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 30 AUGUST - 01 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Aug:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Aug             31 Aug             01 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Impulsive B- to minor C-class flaring again observed 
from AR905. The current coronal hole wind stream is in decline 
and solar wind parameters should decline to nominal levels by 
day two. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 29 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22232221
      Darwin               6   22222121
      Learmonth            6   22222220
      Culgoora             6   22231211
      Camden               6   11232221
      Canberra             8   22332221
      Hobart               8   22332220
      Casey(Ant)          15   --333333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Aug : 
      Charters_Towers      3   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   4322 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
31 Aug     5    Quiet 
01 Sep     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: The current coronal hole wind stream is in decline and 
solar wind parameters should reach nominal levels by day two. 
The Bz component of the IMF remained mostly northward, with brief 
minor (4 nT) southward excursions. The anticipated mild solar 
wind shock resulting from a CME observed on Aug 26 did not eventuate. 
As a result, geomagnetic activity did not reach forecast levels, 
remaining at mostly unsettled levels at low to mid latitudes 
with brief active periods at high latitudes. Expect unsettled 
conditions day one, becoming generally quiet on days two and 
three. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
31 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Chance of disturbed periods day one at mid to high latitudes.
Expect mostly normal conditions days two and three. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Aug    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Aug    15    Near predicted monthly values 
31 Aug    15    Near predicted monthly values 
01 Sep    15    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Spread-F conditions observed S Aus/NZ regions. Possible 
periods of disturbance S Aus/Antarctic regions day one. Otherwise 
ionospheric conditions should be mostly normal next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Aug
Speed: 602 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:   209000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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