[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 August 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Aug:  86/29

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Aug             17 Aug             18 Aug
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    86/29              86/29              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day. 
Region 904(S14W04) produced four B-class flares, the 
largest being a B8.1 flare at 1044UT. The solar wind 
speed remained between 280 and 300 km/s by 1700UT today, 
then rose to 310 km/s and remained around this value for 
the rest of the UT day. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained slightly 
negative (from -02 to -04 nT) for most part of the UT day. 
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low to low 
levels over the next 3 days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 15 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11010111
      Darwin               4   21110212
      Learmonth            1   11000101
      Culgoora             1   00000111
      Camden               3   11111111
      Canberra             1   00010101
      Hobart               1   01010010
      Casey(Ant)           3   12111111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Aug : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1011 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Aug     4    Quiet 
17 Aug     4    Quiet 
18 Aug     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the UT day 
today. Similar geomagnetic conditions are expected for the 
next 3 days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations 
on 15 August. Similar HF conditions are expected in most parts 
of the world on 16 August. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
15 Aug     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 25%/near montly predicted values
      during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Aug     9    near predicted monthly values 
17 Aug     9    near predicted monthly values 
18 Aug     9    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in the Aus/NZ region for the next 3 days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Aug
Speed: 310 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    18600 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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