[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 August 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 15 09:34:35 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 86/29 86/29 86/29
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day with only
a couple of low B-class Xray flares from Region AR904 (S13E10).
This region has decreased in overall size but grown slightly
in magnetic complexity with the emergence of some small spots
between the leader and trailer spots. However solar activity
is still expected to remain at very low levels over the next
3 days. The solar wind speed is very low at less than 300km/s.
The interplanetary magnetic field Bz component was for the most
part mildly Southward, fluctuating between -4nT and 0nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11111011
Darwin 2 11110011
Learmonth 1 11110000
Culgoora 1 11001001
Camden 4 12112121
Canberra 0 00001001
Hobart 1 01002000
Casey(Ant) 4 12211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Aug :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 50 (Unsettled)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Aug 4 Quiet
16 Aug 4 Quiet
17 Aug 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were very quiet over the UT day.
Expect quiet geomagnetic conditions to prevail for the next three
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal. Equatorial and low
latitudes again experienced some variability in HF conditions
during the day, in particular MUF depressions after local dawn.
Expect mostly normal HF conditions to prevail at all latitudes
over the next few days with ongoing variability in the equtorial
region.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Aug 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Variable enhancements and depressions over UT day.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values/ depressed to 15%
after local dawn
16 Aug 17 Near predicted monthly values/ depressed to 15%
after local dawn
17 Aug 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionosphere in the Australian region was mostly normal.
The PNG/N.Australian regions showed some variability in MUF with
depressions up to 20% after local dawn. The S.Aus/NZ regions
showed 15% MUF enhancements over the local night. Expect mostly
normal conditions to prevail next 2-3 days, with further variability
at equatorial and low latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 50000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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