[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 September 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 SEPTEMBER - 02 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Sep:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Sep             01 Oct             02 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar background X-ray flux and solar wind parameters 
remain at nominal levels. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 29 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2322 2212
      Darwin               8   2321 2312
      Learmonth            7   2221 2312
      Culgoora             5   221- ----
      Canberra             6   2222 2211
      Hobart               7   2222 3111
      Casey(Ant)          12   3432 2312
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Sep : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12   3342 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
01 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
02 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Generally quiet geomagnetic conditions observed with 
isolated unsettled periods at high latitudes only. There was 
a sustained period of negative Bz polarity over the mid part 
of the UT day, otherwise solar wind parameters remain at nominal 
levels. Expect continuing mostly quiet to unsettled conditions 
next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild daytime-evening depressions observed at low latitudes, 
recovering post-dawn. Expect mostly normal HF conditions next 
three days. Possible periods of degradation mainly at high latitudes 
in association with elevated geomagnetic levels. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Sep    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Sep    22    Near predicted monthly values 
01 Oct    25    Near predicted monthly values 
02 Oct    25    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild daytime/evening depressions observed Equatorial/N 
Aus regions. Isolated periods of spread-F conditions observed 
S Aus regions. Expect mostly normal HF conditions next three 
days. Possible isolated degradations at high latitudes. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Sep
Speed: 384 km/sec  Density:    8.3 p/cc  Temp:    40200 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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