[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 September 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 29 09:26:17 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 SEPTEMBER - 01 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Sep: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Sep 30 Sep 01 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed today. There
was a southeast directed CME, first visible in LASCO C3 imagery
at 0240UT. This was most likely a backside event. A southern
hemisphere coronal hole is now moving into geoeffective position.
Solar wind speeds have so far remained at nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Sep : A K
Australian Region 10 2232 3322
Darwin 9 2222 3322
Learmonth 11 2222 3422
Culgoora 7 1222 2322
Canberra 9 2232 2321
Hobart 9 2232 3221
Casey(Ant) 10 2332 2322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Sep :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13 3423 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Sep 12 Unsettled
01 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: A brief minor disturbance was observed on the IPS magnetometer
network at 17UT. Expect conditions to remain mostly quiet with
unsettled periods possible, mainly at high latitudes, due to
sustained southward Bz. Solar wind parameters have remained stable
despite a favourably positioned coronal hole.
A weak (14nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 1703UT on 28 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal HF conditions next three days.
Possible periods of degradation mainly at high latitudes in association
with elevated geomagnetic levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Sep 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Sep 28 near predicted monthly values
30 Sep 25 near predicted monthly values
01 Oct 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Persistent spread-F conditions observed S Aus/Antarctic
regions mainly during local night. Mild depressions observed
before local dawn at low latitudes, recovering quickly post-dawn.
Expect mostly normal conditions next three days with possibility
of minor degradations at high latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Sep
Speed: 392 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 48900 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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