[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 September 05

Sat Sep 17 09:55:40 EST 2005

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M4.4    0149UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.4    1748UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M3.5    1936UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Sep: 112/63

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Sep             18 Sep             19 Sep
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             105/54

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Sep: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 16 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   3344 4222
      Learmonth           18   2334 5222
      Culgoora            16   3344 3221
      Canberra            20   3345 4221
      Hobart              16   3344 3222
      Casey(Ant)          16   4334 3222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Sep : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              61   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        22
           Planetary             43   3235 6754     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Sep    13    Unsettled to Active 
18 Sep     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
19 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 14 September 
and is current for interval 15-17 September. Generally quiet 
to unsettled conditions expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 14 09 2005 0100UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions. Mildly degraded HF conditions 
possible at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 Sep    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 30% during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Depressed by 20% during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Sep    30    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
18 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 37 was issued on 16 September 
and is current for interval 17-18 September (SWFs) . 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.1E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Sep
Speed: 735 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:   297000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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