[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 September 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 16 09:39:39 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 SEPTEMBER - 18 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Sep: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 0213UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
X1.2 0838UT probable all Mid East/Indian
M1.0 1913UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Sep: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Sep 17 Sep 18 Sep
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was high on 15th September due to region
808. CME shock arrived on the 15 September at 0830 UT. The solar
wind increased from 550 km/s to a maximum of 900 km/s and the
Bz went to -7 nT. Presently the solar wind is at 730 km/s. Expect
solar activity to remain at moderate to high levels.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
15/0125UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Sep: Quiet to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 15 Sep : A K
Australian Region 31 2235 6533
Learmonth 36 2235 6633
Culgoora 29 2125 6533
Canberra 36 2236 6533
Hobart 26 2235 5533
Casey(Ant) 41 4-45 555-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Sep :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 86 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 50
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 25 3355 5332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Sep 14 Unsettled to Active
17 Sep 12 Unsettled
18 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 14 September
and is current for interval 15-17 September. Geomagnetic activity
is presently unsettled to active and is expected to decline to
unsettled to quiet over the next three days.
A weak (24nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 0904UT on 15 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Normal Normal-fair Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 14 09 2005 0100UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Normal Fair-normal Poor
17 Sep Normal Normal Poor-fair
18 Sep Normal Normal Poor-fair
COMMENT: More shortwave fadeouts may be observed during the next
few days. HF conditions are expected to show moderate to strong
degradations on high latitudes on 16 September. Mid latitudes
may also observe mild to significant degradations on this day.
Otherwise, expect improving conditions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Sep 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Sep 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%.
17 Sep 24 near predicted monthly values
18 Sep 24 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 36 was issued on 15 September
and is current for interval 15-16 September. HF conditions may
show mild degradations in southern Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.5E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:30%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Sep
Speed: 581 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 90200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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