[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 September 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 5 09:51:48 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 SEPTEMBER - 07 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Sep: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Sep 06 Sep 07 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
a C2-class event from region 803. Solar activity is expected
to be at very low levels for the next 2 days, with no major
active regions currently on disc, and only a slight chance
for C-class events. The Solar wind speed increased from
600km/s at 0000UT to almost 800km/s between 0900UT and 1300UT,
after which it declined to 650km/s at the time of this report.
The north south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) fluctuated between +/-5n for the entire UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 04 Sep : A K
Australian Region 17 3344 3322
Learmonth 20 3335 4322
Culgoora 20 3345 3322
Canberra 20 3345 3322
Hobart 20 2354 3332
Casey(Ant) 24 4433 35-3
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Sep :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 55 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 32 6645 3324
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Sep 22 active
06 Sep 14 Unsettled to Active
07 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions were observed
over the last 24 hours, with the period between 0900UT and 1300UT
where the solar wind velocity rose, resulted in Active geomagnetic
levels. Unsettled to Active conditions are expected 05Sep with
possible Minor Storm levels. Predominently Unsettled conditions
expected for 06Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Disturbed HF conditions possible for mid to low latitudes,
with depressed MUF's for the next 24 hours due to elevated
geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Sep 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Sep 20 5 to 10% below predicted monthly values
06 Sep 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
07 Sep 35 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected for Southern Aus/NZ
regions for the next 24 hours, with the chance of depressed periods
due to expected elevated geomagnetic conditions. Mostly normal
HF conditions are expected over all other regions. A return to
normal HF conditions for 06Sep onwards, for all regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Sep
Speed: 590 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 150000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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