[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 September 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 4 09:51:59 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 SEPTEMBER - 06 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Sep: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Sep 05 Sep 06 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours,
with only a B6.1-class event from region 805. Solar activity
is expected to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days
with only the slight chance for a C-class event. The solar wind
speed declined gradually over the UT day, with a peak of 670km/s
at 0000UT to be 550km/s at the time of this report. The north
south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) had
lengthy sustained southward periods (max -5nT) between 0000UT
and 1400UT and then turned northward untill 2000UT at which it
turned southward again, to be -3nT at this time of this
report.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 03 Sep : A K
Australian Region 15 3344 3212
Learmonth 13 3334 3212
Culgoora 12 3333 3212
Canberra 15 3344 3212
Hobart 17 3344 4212
Casey(Ant) 13 3443 2113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Sep :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 95 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 32
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 33 3454 4554
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Sep 25 active
05 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
06 Sep 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions were observed
over the last 24 hours as elevated solar wind paramters created
enhanced geomagnetic activity during the first half of the UT
day. Unsettled conditions are expected for 04Sep as the solar
wind paramters are currently declining. Possible Active to Minor
Storm levels are expected late on 04Sep and extending into 05Sep,
due to an anticipated arrival of a transient from the full halo
CME on 01Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Fair Fair Fair-Poor
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Disturbed HF conditions expected over for all regions
with lower MUF's for the next 2 days, due to elevated geomagnetic
activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Sep 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Sep 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
05 Sep 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
06 Sep 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: Depressed HF conditions after local dawn for Southern
Aus/NZ regions are expected to continue for the next 2 days due
to current elevated geomagnetic conditions. Otherwise normal
conditions expected with possible disturbed periods over all
regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Sep
Speed: 465 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 101000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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