[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 October 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 31 10:13:46 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z OCTOBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Oct: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Oct 01 Nov 02 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today as well.
No flare activity was recorded. The solar wind speed showed
a gradual decrease from 350km/s to 320 km/s during the first
half of the UT day and then a gradual increase to 380 km/s
during the second half by the time of this report. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) remained slightly negative until 0300UT and then showed
minor to mild fluctuations on both sides of the normal value
during the rest of the UTday. Region 814, which was known as
808 in its previous appearance on the disk in early September,
is expected to reappear on the front side of the disk on 01
November. This region produced several CMEs and large flares
during its previous appearance, but it is not expected to be
as active this time. Solar activity is expected to remain at
very low levels for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 1212 2122
Darwin 4 1112 2122
Learmonth 4 1112 2122
Culgoora 4 1212 2111
Canberra 4 0212 2121
Hobart 3 1110 2111
Casey(Ant) 9 13-3 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Oct :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 1010 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Oct 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
01 Nov 5 Quiet
02 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at quiet
levels during the next three days with some possibility of
isolated unsettled conditions on 31 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
at most locations during the next three days with some
possibility of minor depressions and degradations on high
latitude locations on 31 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Oct 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of degrdations.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values
01 Nov 8 Near predicted monthly values
02 Nov 8 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most parts of the Aus/NZ regions during the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Oct
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 40900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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