[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 October 05

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z OCTOBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct:  74/11

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Oct             31 Oct             01 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today as well. 
No flare activity was recorded. The solar wind speed 
gradually decreased from 400km/s to 360 km/s by the time 
of this report. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field (Bz) remained close to the normal value 
throughout the UT day today. Solar activity is expected to 
remain at very low levels for the next few days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 29 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   2111 0211
      Darwin               2   2110 0112
      Learmonth            4   2111 0221
      Culgoora             2   1111 0111
      Canberra             1   1010 0111
      Hobart               2   1010 0211
      Casey(Ant)           8   2332 1221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Oct : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1022 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Oct     5    Quiet 
31 Oct     5    Quiet 
01 Nov     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at quiet 
levels during the next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
at most locations during the next three days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
29 Oct    11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of degradations.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  23

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Oct    15    Near predicted monthly values 
31 Oct    15    Near predicted monthly values 
01 Nov    15    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in most parts of the Aus/NZ regions during the next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Oct
Speed: 441 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:    49800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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