[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 October 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 2 09:25:36 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z OCTOBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Oct: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Oct 03 Oct 04 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 75/13 80/20
COMMENT: Solar background X-ray flux remains at nominal levels.
Solar wind speed remains slightly elevated at around 520 km/s
at the time of report issue.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 2232 2222
Darwin 8 2232 2222
Learmonth 10 2232 2331
Culgoora 8 2232 2222
Canberra 10 2332 3222
Hobart 9 2233 3112
Casey(Ant) 17 4-52 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Oct :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 11 1213 4322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has remained mildly elevated at around
520 km/s over the UT day. An interval of moderate Bz polarity
fluctuations was observed early in the UT day, followed by a
period of sustained mild southward polarity. Unsettled to active
geomagnetic conditions were observed at high latitudes in the
first half of the UT day. Conditions were quiet to unsettled
at lower latitudes. With mildly elevated solar wind velocity,
there is a chance of isolated active periods if Bz polarity turns
southward.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild daytime-evening depressions observed at low latitudes,
recovering post-dawn. Expect mostly normal HF conditions next
three days. Possible mild depressions at low latitudes, mainly
daytime and evening. Possible periods of degradation at high
latitudes in association with elevated geomagnetic levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Oct 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 22
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Oct 15 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
03 Oct 15 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
04 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable daytime/evening depressions observed Equatorial/N
Aus regions. Intervals of intense sporadic-E conditions observed
at all latitudes. Isolated periods of spread-F conditions observed
S Aus/Antarctic regions. Variable depressions possible Equatorial/N
Aus regions. Isolated disturbances possible Antarctic region
in association with geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Sep
Speed: 388 km/sec Density: 10.4 p/cc Temp: 35900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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