[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 September 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 1 09:33:57 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 OCTOBER - 03 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Sep: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Oct 02 Oct 03 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 75/13
COMMENT: Solar background X-ray flux remains at nominal levels.
Solar wind speed trended upwards after 18UT and is slightly elevated
at around 500 km/s at the time of report issue.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 30 Sep : A K
Australian Region 11 2222 4322
Darwin 10 2221 4323
Learmonth 10 2122 4322
Culgoora 10 2122 4322
Canberra 10 1123 4312
Hobart 8 1113 4211
Casey(Ant) 9 2332 3211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Sep :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Culgoora 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2112 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Oct 12 Unsettled
02 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: An interval of mildy negative Bz polarity in the solar
wind was observed on the ACE satellite platform from 1030 to
1300UT. A subsequent interval of active geomagnetic conditions
was observed from 1330 to 1430UT. Otherwise geomagnetic conditions
were quiet. An upward trend in solar wind velocity was observed
late in the UT day. With mildly elevated solar wind velocity,
there is a chance of isolated active periods if Bz polarity turns
southward.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild daytime-evening depressions observed at low latitudes,
recovering post-dawn. Expect mostly normal HF conditions next
three days. Possible mild depressions at low latitudes, mainly
daytime and evening. Possible periods of degradation at high
latitudes in association with elevated geomagnetic levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Sep 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Oct 15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
02 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values
03 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild daytime/evening depressions observed Equatorial/N
Aus regions. Isolated periods of spread-F conditions observed
S Aus regions. Variable depressions possible Equatorial/N Aus
regions. Isolated disturbances possible Antarctic region in association
with geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Sep
Speed: 391 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 31400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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