[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 November 05

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z NOVEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 NOVEMBER - 01 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Nov:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Nov             30 Nov             01 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Nov: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 28 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   2123 4233
      Darwin              10   2122 4233
      Learmonth           11   2222 4233
      Culgoora            11   2123 4233
      Canberra            11   2123 4233
      Hobart              10   1223 4223
      Casey(Ant)          13   3-42 3223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Nov : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0011 0101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
30 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
01 Dec    13    Unsettled to Active 

COMMENT: Activity is likely to increase late on 1 Dec due to 
recurrent coronal hole activity. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

COMMENT: Sporadic E may disrupt F region communications at times; 
mostly during the day and evening. Lower frequencies may be required 
later on 1 Dec due to an increase in geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Nov    23

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E observed
      01-06 and 15-21 UT. Spread F observed at Vanimo 13-14
      UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E
      observed 15-20 UT at Darwin, 17-21 UT at Townsville
      and 05-14 UT at Niue. Spread F observed at Niue 09-17
      UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E observed
      00-04 UT at stations.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E observed
      08-15 UT.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Nov    10    Mostly near predicted monthly values. 
30 Nov    10    Mostly near predicted monthly values. 
01 Dec    10    Mostly near predicted monthly values. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Nov
Speed: 401 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    60000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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