[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 November 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z NOVEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov:  81/22


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Nov             28 Nov             29 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 26 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   1123 2212
      Darwin               5   1122 2212
      Learmonth            5   1113 2211
      Culgoora             5   1113 2112
      Canberra             5   1123 2112
      Hobart               5   1123 2111
      Casey(Ant)           9   3-32 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Nov : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   3432 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Nov     6    Quiet 
28 Nov    11    Unsettled 
29 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Nov    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     No data available during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Depressed by 20% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Nov    10    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values 
29 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: 480 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:   163000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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