[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 November 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z NOVEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov:  83/24


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Nov             14 Nov             15 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              80/20




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2222 3212
      Darwin               7   2221 3212
      Learmonth            7   2212 3212
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra             9   2222 4212
      Hobart               9   2222 4212
      Casey(Ant)          13   44-2 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Nov : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1211 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Nov     6    Quiet 
14 Nov     4    Quiet 
15 Nov     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Nov    24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Nov     0    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Nov
Speed: 391 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:    71900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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