[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 November 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z NOVEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Nov             13 Nov             14 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 11 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2322 1222
      Darwin               7   2312 1222
      Learmonth            8   2322 1322
      Culgoora            11   23-- ----
      Canberra             7   2322 1221
      Hobart               8   1323 1221
      Casey(Ant)           8   3--2 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Nov : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            60   (Unsettled)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0010 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Nov     6    Quiet 
14 Nov     7    Quiet 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Nov    19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 30% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 383 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:    29900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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