[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 November 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z NOVEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Nov:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Nov             11 Nov             12 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: A large filament which was visible in Culgoora H-alpha 
imagery vanished from the solar disk 08 Nov 20-21UT. The filament 
spanned from (-42,16) to (0,44). The lower segment from (-42,16) 
to (-29,20) was visible lifting from the solar disk in Halpha. 
However, no coronal mass ejection was seen in subsequent viewing 
of LASCO space based coronagraph. It is therefore unclear whether 
the CME left the Sun. The location of this filament, just west 
of the solar central meridian suggests some geoeffectiveness. 
A weak shock may be occur in the solar wind late on 10 Nov, early 
11 Nov. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 09 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   2211 0111
      Darwin               3   2211 0112
      Learmonth            3   2211 0101
      Culgoora             3   2111 1101
      Canberra             2   1211 0101
      Hobart               2   1211 0101
      Casey(Ant)           8   3--3 1121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Nov : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1011 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Nov     7    Unsettled 
11 Nov    16    active 
12 Nov    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions now expected for most 10 Nov. Active 
periods may eventuate on late 10 early 11 Nov due to possibility 
of a weak mass ejection from erupting filament late on 098 Nov. 
A weak 27 day recurrent pattern suggests unsettled conditions 
on 12 Nov. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected at mid to high latitudes 
due to geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Nov    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Nov    10    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Nov
Speed: 492 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:   106000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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