[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 November 05

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z NOVEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Nov             10 Nov             11 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be very low. Ace spacecraft 
indicates the solar wind is currently 450km/sec. SOHO EIT image 
shows a coronal hole which is expected to reach a geoeffective 
position late in the UT day, 9 November. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 08 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   2111 0111
      Darwin               3   2111 0111
      Learmonth            3   2101 0222
      Culgoora             2   1111 0111
      Canberra             3   2111 0111
      Hobart               2   1111 0111
      Casey(Ant)           7   3--2 1122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Nov : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             5   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   3121 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Nov    16    active 
11 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet 
today, 9 November, until late in the UT day a coronal hole wind 
stream is expected to enter a geoeffective position. Geomagnetic 
activity may increase to active levels late in the UT day 9 November 
and all day 10 November. Returning to quiet to unsettled conditions 
11 November. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Darwin, Townsville, and Norfolk ionograms showed isolated 
cases of sporadic E between 07 and 12 UT. Otherwise, normal HF 
conditions were observed in the Australia on 8 November. Expect 
near normal HF conditions today. On 10 November due to the likelihood 
of an active geomagnetic field there is a possibility of mild 
degradtions particularly in the higher latitudes. On 11 November 
HF conditions should return to normal HF conditions for this 
time of year and period in the solar cycle. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Nov    21

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Nov    20    near predicted monthly values 
10 Nov    16    near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                30% 
11 Nov    18    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: MUFs should be near predicted monthly values today, 
9 November. On 10 November expect some mild degradations due 
to an active geomagnetic field. On 11 November as the geomagnetic 
field returns to unsettled to quiet levels expect the MUFs to 
return to Normal predicted values. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 632 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:   119000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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