[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 November 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 4 10:29:08 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z NOVEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels
with a slight possibility of a C-class xray flare. The ACE spacecraft
shows the signs of a geoeffective coronal hole wind stream with
the increase in velocity to 650 km/sec. The EIT image indicates
a coronal hole windstream will be in a geoeffective position
later today, 4 November. Therefore, there may be a further boost
in the solar wind later today or the coronal hole effects appear
to have occurred earlier than expected. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field continues to fluctuate between
+5nT and -5nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: Unsettled to active levels.
Estimated Indices 03 Nov : A K
Australian Region 20 3434 3343
Darwin 16 3333 3343
Learmonth 18 3323 3353
Culgoora 18 3434 3333
Canberra 21 3435 3333
Hobart - ---- ----
Casey(Ant) 33 55-5 3343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Nov :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora 86 (Minor storm)
Canberra 146 (Severe storm)
Hobart 96 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1100 0133
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Nov 28 Active to minor storm
05 Nov 30 Active to minor storm
06 Nov 12 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 33 was issued on 3 November
and is current for interval 3-5 November. Geomagnetic activity
has been unsettled to active with isolated occurrences of minor
storms due to earlier than expected effects of coronal hole wind
stream. Expect similar disturbances to continue for the next
two days as coronal wind stream remains in geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
05 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions are expected
particularly at high latitudes over the next two days, 4-5 November,
due to geomagnetic disturbances. Observed spread F at mid to
high latitudes overnight and isolated occurrences of sporadic
E at low latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Nov 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%.
05 Nov 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
06 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions are expected over the next two days,
4-5 November due to geomagnetic disturbances effecting the ionosphrere.
Also expect isolated cases of Spread F to continue at mid to
high latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Nov
Speed: 380 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 39200 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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