[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 November 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 3 10:43:06 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z NOVEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Nov 04 Nov 05 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
The ACE spacecraft detected a solar sector boundry crossing at
approximately 1830 UT. Due to this crossing the solar wind increased
from approximately 400 km/sec to 550 km/sec and Bz north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between
+10nT and -10nT. A geoffective coronal hole is expected to reach
a geoeffective position late on 4 November of the UT day. Overnight
a CME was detected from the SOHO spacecraft commencing at approximately
0918 UT. No associated activity was noted on the solar disk and
therefore appears to have resulted from a region on the far side
of the sun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: Quiet to active levels.
Estimated Indices 02 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 2211 1133
Darwin 5 2111 113-
Learmonth 7 2210 1243
Culgoora 4 1110 1133
Canberra 4 1210 1134
Hobart - ---- ----
Casey(Ant) 12 3-32 1243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Nov :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 52 (Unsettled)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3202 2312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Nov 10 Quiet to unsettled
04 Nov 28 Active to minor storm
05 Nov 30 Active to minor storm
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain quiet to
unsettled on 3 November and likely to become disturbed late on
4 November due to a coronal hole wind stream reaching a geoeffective
position. Due to the size of the coronal hole, effects may last
approximately two days. Expect the geomagnetic field to become
active with isolated occurrences of minor storm levels during
this period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
05 Nov Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 3
November with possible spread F during the night at higher latitudes.
Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and depressions in
MUFs are possible late on 4 November and on 5 November due to
possible geomagnetic disturbances.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Nov 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Nov 20 near predicted monthly values
04 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%.
05 Nov 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal in
most parts of the Aus/NZ regions on 3 November. Mild to minor
degradations in HF conditions and depressions in MUFs are possible
on 4 and 5 November due to an anticipated rise in geomagnetic
activity during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Nov
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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