[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 March 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 30 MARCH - 01 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Mar:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Mar             31 Mar             01 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed in the past 24 
hours. 27 day recurrence patterns suggest elevated solar wind 
speeds due to a coronal hole wind stream from 01 Apr. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 29 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1220 0112
      Learmonth            3   1121 1112
      Culgoora             1   0110 0112
      Canberra             2   0210 0112
      Hobart               2   0220 0111
      Casey(Ant)           6   2-31 1212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Mar : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1210 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Mar     4    Quiet 
31 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
01 Apr    16    active 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions expected next two days, 27 day recurrent 
patterns suggest active periods are probable 01-03 Apr. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation at high latitudes 01-04 Apr due to 
coronal hole wind stream. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Mar    38

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  31

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Mar    45    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
31 Mar    45    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
01 Apr    20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 20% 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected for next two days. Mild 
to moderate depression may be experienced southern Aus/NZ region 
01-03 Apr. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Mar
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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