[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 March 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 19 MARCH - 21 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Mar:  96/43


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Mar             20 Mar             21 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 18 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2112 1223
      Darwin               0   0000 0000
      Learmonth            7   2211 23-3
      Culgoora             7   1112 1333
      Canberra             8   2113 1333
      Hobart               7   1113 1233
      Casey(Ant)          10   3-32 1233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Mar : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12   3324 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Mar     3    Quiet 
20 Mar     4    Quiet 
21 Mar     3    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Mar    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     No data available during local day,
     No data available during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  31

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Mar    45    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
20 Mar    45    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
21 Mar    45    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Mar
Speed: 403 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:   106000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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