[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 March 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 18 MARCH - 20 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Mar: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Mar             19 Mar             20 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48              95/41
COMMENT: Solar wind conditions nominal. No significant flare 
activity. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 17 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2222 1221
      Darwin               0   0000 0000
      Learmonth            9   3223 1322
      Culgoora             9   2223 2321
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart               8   232- 2-21
      Casey(Ant)          12   3333 1322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Mar : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   0011 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Mar    12    Unsettled 
19 Mar    12    Unsettled 
20 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: 27 day recurrence suggests weak recurrent pattern next 
two days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Mar    78

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 55% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  31

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 15%. 
19 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 15%. 
20 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 15%. 
COMMENT: Enhanced conditions expected next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Mar
Speed: 391 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:    56100 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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