[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 March 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 14 10:32:52 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Regions 741(N12W58)
and 742(S05W13) produced a few B- and low C-class flares,
the largest being a C1.5 flare from region 742 at 1517UT.
The solar wind stream continued to weaken until 2100UT
today and then gained some strength. The solar wind speed
gradually decreased from 360 km/s to 320 km/s (approx.)
by 2100UT today and then showed a gradual increase upto
350 km/s (approx.) during the rest of the day until the
time of this report. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained nearly stable
and slightly negative until around 1400UT. Bz then showed
minor fluctuations on both sides of the normal value until
around 1800UT and then stayed moderately southwards
(approx. -7nT) during the rest of the UT day. Solar activity
is expected to remain at very low to low levels during the
next three days. Region 742 has shown some growth during
the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 1111 1222
Darwin 0 0000 0000
Learmonth 4 2101 1223
Culgoora 3 1111 0222
Canberra 3 1011 0222
Hobart 4 1111 1222
Casey(Ant) 7 2321 2123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Mar :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1110 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Mar 11 Quiet to unsettled with some possibility
of isolated active periods.
15 Mar 11 Quiet to unsettled with some possibility
of active periods.
16 Mar 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet to unsettled levels during the next three
days. However, there is some possibility of isolated active
periods on 14 and 15 March due to an anticipated effect of
a small coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions may be expected to
remain mostly near normal in most low and mid-latitude
locations during the next three days. However, minor and
sometimes mild degradations may be possible on high
latitudes on 14 and 15 March due to an expected slight
rise in the geomagnetic activity on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Mar 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced by
15% over the UT day with periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 31
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Mar 35 Near predicted monthly values
15 Mar 35 Near predicted monthly values
16 Mar 48 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal in most locations around Aus/NZ regions during the
next three days. However, isolated periods of minor
depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may
be observed at times in the Southern Aus/NZ regions on
14 and 15 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+09 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:30%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 36500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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