[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 March 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 13 10:34:07 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 13 MARCH - 15 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Mar: 110/60

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Mar             14 Mar             15 Mar
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. A C1.7 and a few 
B-class flares were observed. The C1.7 flare was produced 
by region 741(N12W42) at 0906UT. The solar wind stream 
continued to weaken further today. The solar wind speed 
gradually decreased from 460 km/s to 360 km/s (approx.) 
today. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field (IMF) remained nearly stable and close to 
the normal value during the UT day today. Solar activity 
is expected to remain at very low to low levels during the 
next three days. There is some possibility of isolated 
C-class activity from regions 741 and 742(S06E02). 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1210 1001
      Darwin               0   0000 0000
      Learmonth            3   2110 2101
      Culgoora             1   1110 1001
      Canberra             2   1210 1001
      Hobart               2   1211 1001
      Casey(Ant)           8   3331 1111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Mar : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6   2221 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Mar     9    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible. 
14 Mar    11    Quiet to unsettled with some possibility of isolated 
                active periods. 
15 Mar    11    Quiet to unsettled with some possibility of active 
                periods. 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly at quiet to unsettled levels during the next three 
days. However, there is some possibility of isolated active 
periods on 14 and 15 March due to an anticipated effect of 
a small coronal hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal        
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions may be expected to 
remain mostly near normal in most low and mid-latitude 
locations during the next three days. However, minor 
and sometimes mild degradations may be possible on high 
latitudes on day two and three of this period due to an 
expected slight rise in the geomagnetic activity on 
these days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
12 Mar    52

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of degradations.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  31

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Mar    35    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%. 
14 Mar    32    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Mar    32    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal in most locations around Aus/NZ regions during the 
next three days. However, isolated periods of minor 
depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may 
be observed at times in the Southern Aus/NZ regions on 
14 and 15 March. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Mar
Speed: 528 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:   114000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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