[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 March 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 13 10:34:07 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 13 MARCH - 15 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Mar: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. A C1.7 and a few
B-class flares were observed. The C1.7 flare was produced
by region 741(N12W42) at 0906UT. The solar wind stream
continued to weaken further today. The solar wind speed
gradually decreased from 460 km/s to 360 km/s (approx.)
today. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) remained nearly stable and close to
the normal value during the UT day today. Solar activity
is expected to remain at very low to low levels during the
next three days. There is some possibility of isolated
C-class activity from regions 741 and 742(S06E02).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 1210 1001
Darwin 0 0000 0000
Learmonth 3 2110 2101
Culgoora 1 1110 1001
Canberra 2 1210 1001
Hobart 2 1211 1001
Casey(Ant) 8 3331 1111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Mar :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6 2221 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Mar 9 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
14 Mar 11 Quiet to unsettled with some possibility of isolated
active periods.
15 Mar 11 Quiet to unsettled with some possibility of active
periods.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet to unsettled levels during the next three
days. However, there is some possibility of isolated active
periods on 14 and 15 March due to an anticipated effect of
a small coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions may be expected to
remain mostly near normal in most low and mid-latitude
locations during the next three days. However, minor
and sometimes mild degradations may be possible on high
latitudes on day two and three of this period due to an
expected slight rise in the geomagnetic activity on
these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Mar 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 31
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Mar 35 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
14 Mar 32 Near predicted monthly values
15 Mar 32 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal in most locations around Aus/NZ regions during the
next three days. However, isolated periods of minor
depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may
be observed at times in the Southern Aus/NZ regions on
14 and 15 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Mar
Speed: 528 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 114000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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