[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 June 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 8 09:51:08 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 08 JUNE - 10 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jun: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours with only
C-class events from both regions 772 and 776. The largest events
were from region 772 with a C3.0 class flare at 1334UT and a
C2.5 from region 776 at 1908UT. An erupting filament occured
at 0900UT, in the northeast of the disk, resulting in a non earth
directed CME. Solar wind speed increased from 480km/s at the
beginning of the UT day to a maximum of 520km/s during the period
between 1300UT and 2300UT. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz), was southward, with a maximum
of -7nT, from 0000UT to 0600UT after which it then fluctuated
between +/-3nT. A period of Active geomagnetic conditions was
observed between 0830UT and 1434UT. Further C-class and possible
isolated M-class events are expected for the next few days, with
no notable change in sunspot size or magnetic complexity of any
of the regions currently on disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 07 Jun : A K
Australian Region 12 2333 4122
Learmonth 11 2323 4122
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 14 2334 4122
Hobart 15 2344 4112
Casey(Ant) 7 2232 2122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jun :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 13 3331 1234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jun 14 Unsettled to Active
09 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Active conditions observed over the last 24
hours with prolonged southward Bz values at the beginning of
the UT day and Active periods observed between 0830UT and 1430UT.
Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected, with isolated Active
periods likely for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Good HF conditions observed over Low to Mid latitudes.
Degraded HF conditions observed for high latitudes over the last
24 hours due to increased geomagnetic actvity. Similar, but improving
conditions for high latitudes, are expected over the next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jun 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jun 35 near predicted monthly values
09 Jun 40 near predicted monthly values
10 Jun 40 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Southern Aus/NZ region MUFs may experience some isolated
depressed periods, but generally good HF conditions are expected
over the next 2 days, with enhanced conditions likely for Northern
Australia regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jun
Speed: 559 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 148000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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