[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 June 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 07 JUNE - 09 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jun: 106/55


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jun             08 Jun             09 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours with only 
C-class events from both regions 772 and 776. The largest event 
was from region 772 with a C1.2 class flare at 1844UT. Solar 
wind speed declined from 600km/s to be 450km/s at the tiome of 
this report, indicating the end of the current coronal hole high 
speed solar wind stream. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz), remained between +/-5nT.
Further C-class events are expected for the next few days with
the chance of isolated M-class events. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 06 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   3230 2022
      Learmonth            6   2220 3022
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra             6   3230 2012
      Hobart               6   3230 2012
      Casey(Ant)           9   3331 2122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jun : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             20   4353 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jun    12    Unsettled 
08 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. With the drop in solar wind speed and the recent coronal 
hole disappearing, predominently Quiet conditions are expected 
with isolated Unsettled periods likely for the next 3 days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions observed for high latitudes over 
the last 24 hours. Good HF conditions for mid to low latitudes, 
with improving conditions for high latitudes, are expected over
the next 2 days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Jun    38

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jun    35    near predicted monthly values 
08 Jun    40    near predicted monthly values 
09 Jun    40    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 5 June 
and is current for interval 5-7 June. Southern Aus/NZ region 
MUFs may experience some isolated depressed periods, but generally 
good HF conditions are expected over all regions for the next
3 days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jun
Speed: 605 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:   289000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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