[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 July 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 26 09:34:54 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JULY - 28 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jul: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jul 27 Jul 28 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 90/34 100/48
COMMENT: The solar activity continued to remain very low
today as well. Two more CMEs were observed today. These CMEs
were determined to be backside events and therefore they
are not expected to be geoeffective. Region 791(N13E21),
the only region on the disk, showed slight growth both in
area and spot number over the last 24 hours. This region
may produce B-class or isolated C-class event. The solar
wind speed remained between 290 and 310 km/s almost the
whole day today. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained close to the
normal value almost the whole day. The solar activity is
expected to remain at very low levels during the next three
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 1110 1111
Learmonth 2 1210 0010
Culgoora 4 2121 1111
Canberra 2 1110 1011
Hobart 2 1110 1111
Casey(Ant) 4 1221 1111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jul :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 1111 3221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jul 6 Quiet
27 Jul 6 Quiet
28 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet levels during the next three days with
possibility of unsettled periods on 28 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal on most locations during the next three days with
possibility of minor to mild degrdations on high latitudes
on 28 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jul 23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jul 23 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
10%.
27 Jul 23 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
10%.
28 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most Aus/NZ regions during the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jul
Speed: 388 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 50200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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