[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 July 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 25 09:51:56 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jul 26 Jul 27 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 90/34
COMMENT: The solar activity continued to remain very low
today as well. There seems to be some active region on
the backside of the sun as several backside CMEs were
observed today. One halo CME(1354UT in LASCO imagery) was
associated to a Type II event with speed of 824 km/s, but
it is not expected to be geoeffective. Region 791(N13E37),
the only region on the visible disk, showed some growth in
area during the last 24 hours and it may produce an
isolated C-class flare. The coronal hole effect seems to
have subsided as the solar wind speed gradually decreased
from 420 to 310 km/s during the UT day today. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) remained close to the normal value almost the whole
day. The solar activity is expected to remain at very low
to low levels during the next three days. The ASFC automated
forecast system has noticed an energetic ion enhancement
event beginning 24/2215UT, which can be a precursor to
increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours, but
the enhancement is mild and Bz is close to the normal value.
Therefore this anticipated enhancement in the geomagnetic
activity may not be as strong unless Bz turns southwards
and stays negative for prolonged periods of time.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 2111 1111
Learmonth 5 2211 2221
Culgoora 4 2111 2112
Canberra 2 1100 1111
Hobart 3 1111 1121
Casey(Ant) 5 2222 1112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jul :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5 2111 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jul 6 Mostly quiet.
26 Jul 6 Mostly quiet.
27 Jul 6 Mostly quiet.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet levels during the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations during the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jul 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of significant degradations on some
stations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jul 22 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
10%.
26 Jul 22 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
10%.
27 Jul 22 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
10%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal in
most Aus/NZ regions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 489 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 67100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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