[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 July 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 23 09:40:55 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 80/20 85/27
COMMENT: The solar activity continued to remain very low
today as well. The effect of the recurrent coronal hole
kept the solar wind stream strengthened the whole day. The
solar wind speed remained between 580 and 620 km/s almost
the whole day. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) showed minor fluctuations on both sides
of the normal value almost the whole day. The effect of the
coronal hole, that is currently in progress, is expected to
start weakening from 23 July. The solar activity is expected
to remain at very low level during the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Jul : A K
Australian Region 8 2222 2322
Learmonth 8 2312 2322
Culgoora 8 2222 2322
Canberra 9 2222 3322
Hobart 9 2222 3322
Casey(Ant) 11 3323 2--2
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jul :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 60 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 29 5545 2323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Jul 7 Quiet
25 Jul 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity remained slightly
elevated today due to the continued coronal hole effect.
However, the activity remained slightly lower than
anticipated as Bz remained closer to the normal value
than expected. The geomagnetic activity is expected to
gradually decline on 23 July as the coronal hole effect
is expected to start weakening from this day onwards.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: The HF conditions may show minor to mild
degradations on high latitude locations on 23 July
due to an expected continued slight rise in the
geomagnetic activity level on this day. HF conditions
are expected to remain mostly normal on low and mid
latitudes on 23 July and on almost all locations on
24 and 25 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jul 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values with periods
of significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jul 23 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jul 26 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
10%.
25 Jul 28 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
10%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal in
most Aus/NZ regions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul
Speed: 575 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 171000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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