[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 July 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 23 09:40:55 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul:  74/11

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jul             24 Jul             25 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              80/20              85/27
COMMENT: The solar activity continued to remain very low 
today as well. The effect of the recurrent coronal hole 
kept the solar wind stream strengthened the whole day. The 
solar wind speed remained between 580 and 620 km/s almost 
the whole day. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field (Bz) showed minor fluctuations on both sides 
of the normal value almost the whole day. The effect of the 
coronal hole, that is currently in progress, is expected to 
start weakening from 23 July. The solar activity is expected 
to remain at very low level during the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 22 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2222 2322
      Learmonth            8   2312 2322
      Culgoora             8   2222 2322
      Canberra             9   2222 3322
      Hobart               9   2222 3322
      Casey(Ant)          11   3323 2--2
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jul : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              60   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             29   5545 2323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
24 Jul     7    Quiet 
25 Jul     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity remained slightly 
elevated today due to the continued coronal hole effect. 
However, the activity remained slightly lower than 
anticipated as Bz remained closer to the normal value 
than expected. The geomagnetic activity is expected to 
gradually decline on 23 July as the coronal hole effect 
is expected to start weakening from this day onwards. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: The HF conditions may show minor to mild 
degradations on high latitude locations on 23 July 
due to an expected continued slight rise in the 
geomagnetic activity level on this day. HF conditions 
are expected to remain mostly normal on low and mid 
latitudes on 23 July and on almost all locations on 
24 and 25 July. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
22 Jul    19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values with periods
      of significant degradations. 

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jul    23    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Jul    26    near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to 
                10%. 
25 Jul    28    near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to 
                10%. 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal in 
most Aus/NZ regions during the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul
Speed: 575 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:   171000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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