[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 July 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 22 09:48:25 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JULY - 24 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jul: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jul 23 Jul 24 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 80/20
COMMENT: The solar activity has been very low today. The
visible side of the sun remained sunspotfree. The effect
of the recurrent coronal hole kept the solar wind stream
strengthened the whole day. The solar wind speed remained
between 550 and 600 km/s thoughout the UT day today. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) showed minor to moderate fluctuations on both sides
of the normal value almost the whole day. A full halo CME
was observed in the LASCO imagery, starting at 0354UT. This
CME could not be corelated to any other event and it has
been determined as a back side event. The effect of the
coronal hole, that is currently in progress, is expected
to keep the solar wind stream strengthened on 22 July. The
solar activity is expected to remain at very low level
during the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jul: Quiet to active with
isolated minor storm recorded on some stations.
Estimated Indices 21 Jul : A K
Australian Region 16 3444 1222
Learmonth 12 3333 2232
Culgoora 12 3433 1222
Canberra 16 3444 1222
Hobart 22 3455 1222
Casey(Ant) 15 3433 23-2
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jul :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 125 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 20 4333 4334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jul 13 Unsettled to Active
23 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Jul 7 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 19 July
and is current for interval 20-22 July. The geomagnetic
activity remained elevated today due to the anticipated
continued coronal hole effect. The geomagnetic activity
may remain enhanced to mostly unsettled to active levels
on 22 July. The activity is then expected to gradually
decline during the following two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: The HF conditions may show minor to moderate
degradations on high and some mid latitude locations
on 22 July due to an expected continued rise in the
geomagnetic activity level on this day. HF conditions
are expected to remain mostly normal on most locations
during the following two days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jul 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jul 20 near predicted monthly values to depressed 5
to 10%.
23 Jul 25 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jul 28 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
10%.
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions may be observed in Southern Aus/NZ regions
on 22 July due to an anticipated continued rise in the
geomagnetic activity level on this day. The HF conditions
are expected to remain mostly normal in most Aus/NZ regions
during the following two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jul
Speed: 495 km/sec Density: 7.2 p/cc Temp: 187000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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