[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 July 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 18 09:52:28 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jul             19 Jul             20 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: AR790 produced three B-class and one C4 flare before 
rotating off the west limb today. AR789 produced four B-class 
flares later in the day. AR786 which is now on the farside produced 
a CME. IMF Bz was southward, favouring reconnection with the 
geomagnetic field, from 07-10UT and the northward excursion was 
caused by a weak sudden impulse, resulting from previous AR786 
related CME. An even earlier CME caused a weak shock at ~01UT, which 
resulted in a northward Bz turning, shutting off reconnection. 
IMF was again southward 13-14UT and from 20UT to the present. 
A recurrent coronal hole and high speed solar wind stream is on 
the east side and expected to rotate into geoeffective position 
around the 20th.   

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 17 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   3234 3223
      Learmonth           13   3234 3223
      Culgoora            13   3234 3222
      Canberra            13   3334 3213
      Hobart              12   3234 3213
      Casey(Ant)          15   3343 32-3
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jul : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              43   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              9   2221 1333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jul    12    Unsettled 
19 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Jul    35    Active to Minor storm 
COMMENT: The field is presently quiet after low interaction with 
the CME passages associated with weak shock fronts. The northward 
Bz associated with the fronts shut off IMF reconnection with 
the geomagnetic field and their resultant effect was not dramatic. 
Current Bz southward conditions should activte high latitudes 
which may spread to lower latitudes later. A recurrent hole with 
associated high solar wind speed should become effective around 
the 20th, causing increased magnetic activity. 
A weak (12nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data 
at 0137UT on 17 Jul. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jul      Fair           Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 17 07 2005 1740UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Jul      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
COMMENT: At high latitudes a polar cap absorption (PCA) event 
ended 0120UT but another commenced at 1740UT and is expected 
to continue well into the 18th, associated with a proton event 
and enhanced 10MeV fluxes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Jul    39

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly above predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jul    25    near predicted monthly values 
19 Jul    25    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Jul    37    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: The ionosphere appears fairly stable after the CME/weak 
shock passages recently. The high latitudes will be disturbed 
due to ongoing IMF Bz southwards and a PCA event. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jul
Speed: 417 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    66400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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