[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 July 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 18 09:52:28 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jul 19 Jul 20 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: AR790 produced three B-class and one C4 flare before
rotating off the west limb today. AR789 produced four B-class
flares later in the day. AR786 which is now on the farside produced
a CME. IMF Bz was southward, favouring reconnection with the
geomagnetic field, from 07-10UT and the northward excursion was
caused by a weak sudden impulse, resulting from previous AR786
related CME. An even earlier CME caused a weak shock at ~01UT, which
resulted in a northward Bz turning, shutting off reconnection.
IMF was again southward 13-14UT and from 20UT to the present.
A recurrent coronal hole and high speed solar wind stream is on
the east side and expected to rotate into geoeffective position
around the 20th.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 17 Jul : A K
Australian Region 13 3234 3223
Learmonth 13 3234 3223
Culgoora 13 3234 3222
Canberra 13 3334 3213
Hobart 12 3234 3213
Casey(Ant) 15 3343 32-3
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jul :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 43 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 2221 1333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jul 12 Unsettled
19 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jul 35 Active to Minor storm
COMMENT: The field is presently quiet after low interaction with
the CME passages associated with weak shock fronts. The northward
Bz associated with the fronts shut off IMF reconnection with
the geomagnetic field and their resultant effect was not dramatic.
Current Bz southward conditions should activte high latitudes
which may spread to lower latitudes later. A recurrent hole with
associated high solar wind speed should become effective around
the 20th, causing increased magnetic activity.
A weak (12nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 0137UT on 17 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 17 07 2005 1740UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Jul Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: At high latitudes a polar cap absorption (PCA) event
ended 0120UT but another commenced at 1740UT and is expected
to continue well into the 18th, associated with a proton event
and enhanced 10MeV fluxes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jul 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly above predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jul 25 near predicted monthly values
19 Jul 25 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jul 37 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionosphere appears fairly stable after the CME/weak
shock passages recently. The high latitudes will be disturbed
due to ongoing IMF Bz southwards and a PCA event.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jul
Speed: 417 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 66400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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