[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 July 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    0338UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jul             18 Jul             19 Jul
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13


ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
16/1700UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 16 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   3231 1222
      Learmonth            8   3321 1222
      Culgoora             8   3231 1222
      Canberra             7   3231 0221
      Hobart               7   3231 0221
      Casey(Ant)          13   4322 2332
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jul : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              11   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   1221 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 Jul     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
19 Jul     6    Quiet 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 14 07 2005 1420UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: High latitude communications are currently degraded 
by increased absorption associated with a proton (PCA) event 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Jul    33

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jul    35    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Jul    25    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Jul    25    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  7.2E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jul
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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