[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 January 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jan             24 Jan             25 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              90/34              90/34


ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
22/0130UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 22 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      26   5533 4333
      Darwin              20   4433 4333
      Learmonth           23   5433 4333
      Culgoora            17   4433 3233
      Canberra            23   4533 3343
      Hobart              27   5534 4333
      Casey(Ant)          40   5654 4444
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jan : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            49   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart             188   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        30
           Planetary             61   3132 2886     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jan    18    active 
24 Jan    14    Unsettled to Active 
25 Jan    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 21 January and 
is current for interval 22-23 January. Moderately disturbed conditions 
expected during forecast period, isolated minor storm periods 
may be experienced. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jan      Normal-Fair    Fair           Fair-Poor
PCA Event : Began at 0220UT 16/01, Ended at 1745UT 22/01
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Depressed conditions expected on day 1 of forecast period 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Jan    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     No data available during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Depressed by 15% during local day,
     Depressed by 20% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Depressed by 30% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
     Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     No data available over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  32

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jan    15    Depressed 15 to 20% southern Aus/NZ region 
24 Jan    20    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
25 Jan    30    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+07
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 570 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:   130000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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