[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 January 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 22 10:11:58 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1016UT possible lower European
M1/-- 1355UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jan: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jan 23 Jan 24 Jan
Activity Moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: Solar region 720 is leaving the solar disk. The coronal
mass ejection from the X7 flare has arrived at the Earth. The
ACE measured solar wind speed observed a strong shock in the
solar wind speed at 1646UT ncreasing from 590 to 830 Km/sec,
across the shock. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field was southward by up to 20nT to a about 19 UT then
mildly northward. Solar activity is expected to decline with
the departure of 720.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jan: Quiet to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 21 Jan : A K
Australian Region 29 2223 2666
Darwin 27 2222 2665
Learmonth 37 2223 2676
Culgoora 27 2222 1665
Canberra 29 2322 2666
Hobart 39 2333 2676
Casey(Ant) 31 3--3 3-65
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jan :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora 156 (Severe storm)
Canberra NA
Hobart 170 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 45
Planetary 70
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 2112 4433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jan 30 Minor storm first half of UT day then declining.
23 Jan 10 Unsettled
24 Jan 16 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 21 January and
is current for interval 22-23 January. Geomagnetic storm activity
observed late in UT day 21 Jan from coronal mass ejection. Storm
activity with declining strength expected to extend into 22 Jan.
A coronal hole is expected to cause active periods 24 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal-fair Normal-poor Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 16 01 2005 0220UT and is
in progress.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Fair Fair Poor(PCA)
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions degraded by geomagnetic storm activity
from coronal mass jection. Degraded conditions expected today
for mid to high latitudes. High absorption experienced at polar
regions due to proton event which has nearly ended.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jan 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
No data available during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 32
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jan 10 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
23 Jan 20 Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering
24 Jan 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed after local dawn this morning
following overnightgeomagetic activity. Southern region MUFs
expected to be depressed today.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.2E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:31%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jan
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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