[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 January 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jan: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jan             14 Jan             15 Jan
Activity     Low to Moderate    Low to Moderate    Low to Moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased from 400 to 700km/sec over 
the UT day. This indicates that the Earth has entered a coronal 
hole wind stream. Elevated wind speeds are expected to persist 
next two days. The north south component of interplatary magnetic 
field (BZ) was moderately southward by up to 10nT early in the 
UT day, then returning to near neutral direction. Southward IMF 
conditions are associated with increased geomagnetic activity. 
Solar region 720 located at N13E40 is showing growth, chance for
low level flare activity.


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jan: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 12 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      31   4445 5343
      Darwin              22   -334 5333
      Learmonth           35   4435 6443
      Culgoora            27   4345 533-
      Canberra            37   3456 5343
      Hobart              30   3455 5333
      Casey(Ant)          31   4--5 4443
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jan : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora             8   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              32   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             14   1442 2323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jan    16    active 
14 Jan    16    active 
15 Jan    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 12 January and 
is current for interval 13-14 January. Geomagnetic activity observed 
over past 24 hours in association with the Earth entering a high 
speed solar wind tream from a solar coronal hole. Active periods 
expected next few days as the Earth is currently in a coronal 
hole wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jan      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
14 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
15 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate degradation observed in HF conditions 
yesterday at mid to high latitudes. Similar conditions expected 
next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Jan    33

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  32

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jan    20    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
14 Jan    20    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
15 Jan    20    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressions of around 15% may be experienced after 
local dawn ove rthe next few days, southern Aus/NZ region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jan
Speed: 442 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:   106000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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