[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 January 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 10 10:52:47 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JANUARY - 12 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.2 0846UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jan: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 85/27 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours,
with region 719 producing both a M2.4 class event at 0825UT and
a C2.6 class event at 1435UT. There was little available LASCO
C3 imagery to indicate if the M2.4 event produced a CME that
was earth directed. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field, Bz was northward for the entire the UT day ranging
from neutral to 10nT. The solar wind stream parameters have dropped
to normal levels with the solar wind velocity ranging between
460km/s and 480km/s throughout the UT day. Region 719 holds the
potential for further C-class flare activity and possible M-class
events over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 09 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 2224 1122
Darwin 8 2224 1122
Learmonth 10 2205 1122
Culgoora 7 1224 1011
Canberra 7 2224 1011
Hobart 7 1224 1021
Casey(Ant) 11 3333 2123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jan :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 30 6634 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
11 Jan 14 Unsettled to Active
12 Jan 13 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet to Active conditions were observed over the last
24 hours as the storm levels subsided after the transient effects
passed. Conditions are expected to range from Quiet to Unsettled
for the next 2 days with a slight chance of an increase in solar
wind paramters from geoeffective coronal holes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressed periods observed over all latitutes over
the last 24 hours. Conditons are expected to improve over the
next 24 hours with no expected gemomagnetic transients or storm
periods.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jan 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jan 40 near predicted monthly values
11 Jan 45 near predicted monthly values
12 Jan 45 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressed conditions observed over most regions
in the last 24 hours due to minor geomagnetic storm levels from
a recent transient event. Conditions expected to return to normal
over the next 2 days, with the slight chance of drepressed periods
for Southern Australia and NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jan
Speed: 506 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 103000 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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