[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 January 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 9 10:44:23 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JANUARY - 11 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jan:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Jan             10 Jan             11 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with 
a C-class flare event from new region 719, as well as numerous 
B-class events. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field, Bz was northward for most of the UT day ranging 
from neutral to 18nT. The solar wind stream parameters began 
the UT day at elevated levels, but gradually dropped from 550km/s 
to 450km/s at the time of this report. Regions 718 and 719 hold 
the potential for C-class flare activity over the next few days. 

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
08/1900UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jan: Quiet to Major Storm 

Estimated Indices 08 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      39   6654 4223
      Darwin              39   6654 4223
      Learmonth           38   6653 4233
      Culgoora            33   5653 4223
      Canberra            39   6654 4223
      Hobart              37   6654 3223
      Casey(Ant)          65   6863 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jan : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            46   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart             154   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        22
           Planetary             40                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        21
           Planetary             37   1001 6647     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Jan    16    active 
10 Jan    14    Unsettled to Active 
11 Jan    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 8 January and 
is current for interval 8-9 January. Quiet to Major Storm conditions 
were observed over the last 24 hours with a disturbed first half 
of the UT day due to transient effects from the arrival of a 
glancing blow from recent CME activity. Conditions are expected 
to range from Quiet to Active for the next 24 hours with small 
chance of further transient arrivals possible. A small equatorial 
positioned coronal hole has moved into geoeffective position 
and may contribute to a small increase in solar wind parameters. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
10 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressed periods observed over all latitutes over 
the last 24 hours. Similar conditons are expected for the next 
24 hours, otherwise conditons are expected to be normal. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Jan    21

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Jan    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
10 Jan    40    near predicted monthly values 
11 Jan    45    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild depressed conditions expected for the next 24 hours 
during local day for Southern Australia and NZ regions, otherwise 
conditions expected to be normal. Normal HF conditons are expected 
for 10-Jan. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jan
Speed: 526 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:    76900 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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