[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 December 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 DECEMBER - 25 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Dec:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Dec             24 Dec             25 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low for 22 December with two 
C-class X-ray flares observed from the emerging flux region, 
10838. This region has grown rapidly over the last 24 hrs. Spot 
number has gone from 4 at the beginning of the UT day to about 
25 and the area has increased from 20 mils to over 100 mils. 
The solar wind has remained steady at approximately 450 km/s. 
Solar activity will likely remain at low levels, however if region 
10838 continues to grow at the present pace the activity could 
increase. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Dec: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 22 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2212 1011
      Darwin               4   2212 0112
      Learmonth            4   220- ----
      Culgoora             3   2121 0011
      Canberra             4   2222 0011
      Hobart               4   2222 1011
      Casey(Ant)          11   4--3 2122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Dec : 
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              13   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   1222 3312     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
24 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: None. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal during 
the next 3 days, other than isolated cases of sporadic E at low 
latitudes and spread F at low and high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Dec    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  18

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Dec    18    near predicted monthly values 
24 Dec    18    near predicted monthly values 
25 Dec    18    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Spread F was observed at low and high latitudes overnight. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Dec
Speed: 482 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:   101000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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